Optimization problem of equipment age structure in the model of Russia's unified energy system development

摘要

This paper addresses the problem of analyzing long-term strategies for commissioning of generating and dismantling capacities of electric power systems described by means of the nonclassical Volterra equation of the first kind. The paper offers a review of mathematical models designed for calculating forecast values of the input capacities of electric power systems for various strategies of the generating equipment dismantling. We study the vector model that takes into account three types of generating. A new integral model accounts for division of the generating equipment into certain age groups with various technical and economic functioning parameters described the capacity aging processes. We also consider a search problem for the optimal generating equipment lifetime for a given demand for electricity and minimum total costs of commissioning and operating the capacities. We build a forecast for commissioning of generating capacities for various power consumption scenarios and economic indices. Numerical solution to the optimization problem of the generating equipment dismantling time is given. All calculations have been made as applied to the Russia's Unified Energy System.