Forecasting Method Under the Introduction of a Day of the Week Index to the Daily Shipping Data of Sanitary Materials

摘要

Correct sales forecasting is indispensable to industries. In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, we propose a new method to improve forecasting accuracy and confirm them by the numerical example. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. In this paper, "a day of the week index" is newly introduced for the daily data and the forecasting is executed to the manufacturer's data of sanitary materials. We have obtained good result.