Assessment of regional energy system failure risks by use of wavelet transform

摘要

The majority of heat and electricity systems in the Russian regions nowadays are worn out due to implementation 37 years ago (on average). Thus it seems necessary to accurately assess the duration of their possible failure to reduce possibility of blackouts and to decide upon parallel energy supply system development which might include the shift to alternative sources of energy. Also mentioned assessment would allow predicting energy losses during delivery to the consumer. The number of failures within production and delivery stages results in a decreased amount of energy delivered to the consumer. As losses occur, the amount of raw materials used by energy system remains unchanged or increase as a results of other production units' involvement, but the amount of energy received by the consumer decreases. In this paper we propose wavelet transform as a tool to predict the level of energy system malfunctioning risk, and thus switch to the other source of energy production/delivery to ensure increase in system's energy efficiency.