Simulation and Empirical Analysis on Real Estate Prediction Based on Friction Model

摘要

Based on the housing holding cost model, this paper obtains the causes of real estate price expectations, and analyzes the four factors which affects real estate price expectations from the theory: the supply side, demand side, the local government and some main monetary policy variables. Combined with the actual situation in Chinese real estate market this paper puts forward the corresponding hypothesis. The empirical results show that the main source of housing prices driving force is the demand side, while the impact of local government on prices is not obvious; the effect of supply side and monetary policy on house prices is relatively small. The nominal interest rate has no significant effect on prices, and the real interest rate has more obvious effect. Based on the empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestion of houses prices expectation management.