Traditionally the reliability data is very insufficient in the early designing stage of CNC machine tools and the factors that affect reliability prediction are complicated and fuzzy. S o, in this paper, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on vague set algorithm (VSA) is proposed for reliability prediction. Firstly, the GO methodology is used to establish the system reliability model of CNC machine tools. Secondly, the reliability prediction model is built based on vague set. Finally, an example of rotary table in machining center is taken to prove the availability of the model. Considering the four chief influence factors (design, test, manufacture and maintenance), the VSA model is adopted to make quantitative analysis and prediction, by which the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are verified, and simultaneously the references are provided for the reliability design of next stage.
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