The Test of Industrial Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Jiangsu Province

摘要

Based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), this paper sets up a regression model between economic development and industrial pollution according to the data of per capita GDP and "three industrial wastes" in Jiangsu Province over the period of 1999 to 2012. Regression analysis show that there is no obvious EKC relationship between the industrial effluents emissions and per capita GDP in Jiangsu province. There exist a "N" curve relationship between industrial waste gas emissions and per capita GDP. The first turning point is located at per capital GDP ￥23707 during 2004 and 2005, after then, industrial waste gas emissions showed a trend of decline. The second turning point appeared during the year of 2009 and 2010, which is located at per capital GDP ￥49513, and then the trend turned to rise again. Meanwhile, there exist a "N" curve relationship between industrial solid wastes and per capita GDP. The first turning point is located at per capital GDP ￥22975 during 2004 and 2005, after that, industrial solid wastes showed a trend of decline. The second turning point appeared during the year of 2011 and 2012, which is located at per capital GDP ￥66507, then the trend turned to rise again, and this trend will not change in the short term. Transforming and upgrading from factor-driven and capital-driven to innovation-driven is important for economic transformation and upgrading in Jiangsu.