Aging Risk Between China and Russia Based on the Catastrophe Series

摘要

There are two main risks in aging society. First, macroeconomic stall caused by labor shortages. Second, the basic pension insurance fund income over expenditure, causing social instability. Now there is not research about risk assessment. Russia and China have different social system, based on catastrophe series method to create aging risk evaluation system. This paper valuates the aging risk from the impact of the economic system and the social systems. This method combines the quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators, and it doesn't need to determine the index weight. Finally China and Russia have been at the severe aging risk.