A survey of the uncertainty in stage-discharge rating curves and streamflow records in the United States

摘要

The U.S. Geological Survey computes streamflow discharge at more than 8,100 stream-gages across the United States. Information on the uncertainty of discharge records is currently limited-hydrographers make qualitative assessments of the accuracy of the records for each year based on factors such as the stability and sensitivity of the hydraulic control, the range of measurements available to develop the rating curve, and whether any equipment issues were encountered during the year. In an effort to move towards a quantitative assessment of uncertainty, this study compares a broad sampling of individual measurements of streamflow in the U.S. to the streamflow estimated from the stage-discharge rating curve. The uncertainty of the streamflow records implied by these results is highly variable across streamgages, particularly when considering the real-time uncertainty.