Analysis of energy demand and CO2 emissions of Guangdong electricity sector until 2020

摘要

In this paper,the electricity sector of Guangdong is selected to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions as it consumed the largest share of primary energy and had the highest level of CO2 emission.In 2007,more than 40％ of primary energy and about 81％ of coal were consumed by the electricity sector.These caused about 50％ of the total CO2 emission in Guangdong.For limiting the CO2 emissions,a techno-economic model was built to simulate the development of the Guangdong electricity supply system,in which the objective function of minimizing the total cost of the electricity supply system during the investigation.Results show that considering costs,an optimal electricity development path is obtained through the model.To achieve this target,several important actions are proposed:increasing the capacity of nuclear power plants to 30 GW; decreasing the capacity of low-efficiency coal-fired power plants by 9 GW; exploiting up to 18 GW of renewable energy,mainly wind power.