Quantitative Analysis of Clean Transition Strategy of Traditional Coal-dominated GenCos

摘要

The clean transition of traditional coal-dominated GenCos plays critical role in national energy transition.However,the formulation of strategy is dominated by qualitative analysis,which lacks the ability to quantify key operation indicators in a complex transition process.This paper develops a computer simulation tool for the study of medium and long-term transition of GenCo to simulate the dynamic process of its clean transition.Under the background of clean transition in China's power sector,it quantitatively analyzes the dynamic performance such as business structure,profit,and carbon emission of a traditional GenCo according to its 2020 and 2030 clean development strategic targets,and compares the differences between different pathways under the same strategic targets.And then,this paper analyzes the impact of uncertainties such as coal prices and renewable energy subsidies.