Research on Power Supply Company Investment Scale Simulation Model and Strategy based on System Dynamics under New Electricity Reform

摘要

Since 2016, the reform of power selling side has been coordinated with the reform of electricity price, trading system and power generation plan. With the improvement of the local power planning system, the planning power of power supply companies will be transferred to the government and the planning discourse power will be weakened. The investment scale and investment direction of power supply companies will be subject to stricter control. The investment scale of power supply company plays an important role in the healthy development of power industry. How to establish a simulation model of investment scale of power supply companies is particularly important. Based on the perspective of system dynamics, this paper analyses the investment demand of power supply companies in Dongguan area, considers the dynamic relationship between the adjustment factors of government transmission and distribution price, the interaction and interaction of various links (variables) in the calculation of transmission and distribution price, and establishes the simulation model of investment scale of power supply companies under the supervision mechanism of transmission and distribution price. The interaction between the government and the power supply companies in the regulation of distribution price is analyzed, and the optimization strategy of investment scale of regulatory power supply companies is put forward, to improve the social and economic benefits of the investment scale of regulatory power supply companies in the power supply bureau.