VALIDATION OF A BAYESIAN BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR COASTAL HAZARDS: THE EMMA STORM IMPACT AT FARO BEACH (SOUTH PORTUGAL)

摘要

On the 1st of March the extratropical storm Emma impacted the Iberian Peninsula with significant damages along the south Portuguese and Spanish coast. In central sector of Faro Beach a maximum vertical erosion of approximately 3 m was observed together with the damages in local infrastructure and houses. The morphological and impact data collected from the above event were used to validate and analyze the accuracy and variability of a combined Early Warning and Bayesian Network system. The obtained results show that the Bayesian Network outputs in terms of both hazards and consequences are in good agreement with the filed data. Furthermore, both the accuracy and the variance of the outputs for the given storm conditions is small. The over-predictions of consequences can be considered as a safety aspect for the decision makers.