Research on 24-h Forecasting of Solar Irradiance Based on Multilayer perceptron model

摘要

Accurate forecast of solar irradiance is significant for related domains. Because accurate forecasts can help relevantresearchers plan the management and application of solar energy that can be used in nuclear power stations and powerplant. In this paper, an approach of solar irradiance forecasting based on artificial neural network (ANN) is adopted. Thedataset from April 1st, 2017 to May 31st, 2018 was measured by the meteorological station in Yunnan Normal University.Multilayer perceptron model (MLP) and the variables, such as daily solar irradiance, air humidity, and relevant timeparameter are employed to forecast solar irradiance in future 24 h. Moreover, the method of cross-validation is used toguarantee the robustness of experimental results. The results show the normalized root means square error (nRMSE)between the measured data and forecasted data is about 1.8～20.07% (1.8～10.6% for the sunny day, 11.6～20.07% for thecloudy day). Compared with ANN model, the nRMSE on the model of K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Linear Regression(LR), Ridge Regression (RR), Lasso Regression, Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and Decision TreeRegression (DTR), are 35%, 31%, 30%, 26%, 23% and 11% (unstable) respectively. It means that the performance of ourmodel satisfies related applications.