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An application of Markov chains in stock price prediction and risk portfolio optimization

机译:Markov链在股票价格预测和风险投资组合优化中的应用

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Trading with securities and stock indices gains a lot of popularity these days. Every investor's dream is to know the future prices of financial instruments. This paper attempts to apply a Markov chain model to forecast the trends in the stock prices. Markov chain models are obtained for the prices of 3 different stocks based on probability transition matrix and initial state vector. Quantitative data on the daily closing share prices of the stocks is obtained for the period 01.01.2019-31.12.2019. The analyzed stocks are further mixed up in an optimal risk portfolio. An analysis of risk aversion coefficient and how it influences the choice of complete portfolio is made. Such an approach could be applied in future studies on this matter as well as in the practice of portfolio managers and investors.
机译:这些日子,与证券和股票指数交易增加了很多人气。 每个投资者的梦想都要了解金融工具的未来价格。 本文试图申请马尔可夫链模型来预测股票价格的趋势。 基于概率转换矩阵和初始状态向量的3种不同股票的价格获得马尔可夫链模型。 在01.01.2019-31.12.2019期间,获得了日常闭幕股价的定量数据.2019 .2019。 分析的股票在最佳风险组合中进一步混淆。 对风险厌恶系数的分析及其如何影响完整组合的选择。 可以在未来的研究中应用这种方法以及投资组合管理者和投资者的实践。

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