Study on the GTAP Simulation Trade Development between China and Pakistan

摘要

"The Belt and Road" strategy is a major innovation to strengthen international cooperation between China and Asia, Europe and Africa. This article focuses on the impact of tariff cuts between China and Pakistan on the trade between the two countries in the context of "the Belt and Road". The GTAP model is used to conduct a comparatively static general equilibrium simulation analysis of the impact of tariff reductions on the GDP, social welfare, and import and export levels of the two countries and the world from the perspective of empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the reduction of tariffs on trade in goods between China and Pakistan will have an impact on both sides and the world and will have a positive effect on China's and Pakistan's total GDP and social welfare. And the greater the tariff reduction, the greater the welfare of China and Pakistan and the welfare of the rest of the world. From the perspective of import and export, China's exports have increased, and imports have decreased. With the advancement of "the Belt and Road" strategy, the reduction of tariffs between China and Pakistan will further expand the trade balance between the two countries. Second, different products are sensitive to tariff cuts at varying degrees. Among them, China's textile and apparel imports are affected more seriously. Finally, China's crop production, aquaculture, extractive industries, and processed food industries have been hit by tariff cuts, output has declined, while output from the textile and garment industry, light industry, heavy industry, and infrastructure has increased.