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The Induction Problem: A Machine Learning Vindication Argument

机译:归纳问题:机器学习辩护论证

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The problem of induction is a central problem in philosophy of science and concerns whether it is sound or not to extract laws from observational data. Nowadays, this issue is more relevant than ever given the pervasive and growing role of the data discovery process in all sciences. If on one hand induction is routinely employed by automatic machine learning techniques, on the other most of the philosophical work criticises induction as if an alternative could exist. But is there indeed a reliable alternative to induction? Is it possible to discover or predict something in a non inductive manner? This paper formalises the question on the basis of statistical notions (bias, variance, mean squared error) borrowed from estimation theory and statistical machine learning. The result is a justification of induction as rational behaviour. In a decision-making process a behaviour is rational if it is based on making choices that result in the most optimal level of benefit or utility. If we measure utility in a prediction context in terms of expected accuracy, it follows that induction is the rational way of conduct.
机译:归纳问题是科学哲学中的核心问题,涉及它是否是声音或不从观察数据中提取法律。如今,这个问题比在所有科学中的数据发现过程的普遍存在和越来越多的角色更加相关。如果在自动机器学习技术常规使用一只手诱导的情况下,在其他大部分哲学工作中批评诱导,好像可能存在替代品。但是归纳是否有可靠的替代品?是否有可能以非归纳方式发现或预测某些东西?本文根据估计理论和统计机器学习借用的统计概念(偏差,方差,均方误差)来正规。结果是归纳为理性行为的理由。在决策过程中,如果基于制作最佳效益或实用程序的选择,则行为是合理的。如果我们在预期准确性方面测量预测背景中的效用,则遵循归纳是合理的行为方式。

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