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Risk Analysis for High Pressure Gas Pipeline Construction Schedule

机译:高压气体管道施工时间表的风险分析

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In article authors focus on preparation of construction works schedule for high pressure gas pipeline in urbanized area and implementation of risk analysis in estimation of realistic completion date.In the first step,the pipeline was divided into couple of sections with different construction methods.During evaluation open cut methods,HDD and microtunneling methods were verified and for every approach specific types of risk were identified.Since number of potential risks was significant authors decided to apply the method for ranking the risks and introducing most important potential complications in the construction schedule.After risk identification authors prepared set of impact categories,varying for negligible few days delays to disastrous three months or more delays.Moreover for potential risks a list of probabilities were elaborated to described risk is plausible to happen several times during project execution or is rather likely to occur every couple of similar projects.Combination of sets of possible impacts and sets of probabilities resulted in a project specific risk matrix.Risk matrix was the first tool used for ranking of all risks,especially when regions of intolerable risks and risks requiring mitigation plan were drawn in the matrix.Based on professional literature,and their own experience for every potential risk,authors estimated the risk level.Knowing this in the next step all risks were sorted according to decreasing value of risk level and for risks within intolerable area or within area requiring emergency back-up plan.Authors verified if those plausible risks indeed require a schedule reserve or some other solution may be applied.If schedule reserve was a reasonable solution the relevant additional construction time was estimated,having in mind the schedule impact level of reviewed risk.In the end construction schedule was prepared,which includes the risk analysis for all construction methods.
机译:在文章的作者注重施工准备工程,为在城市化地区,并在实际完成date.In的第一步,估计实施风险分析的高压天然气管道计划,管道被分成几个不同的建筑methods.During评价部分明挖法,硬盘驱动器和微型隧道方法进行了验证,并为每一个方法特定类型的风险是identified.Since的潜在风险数量显著作者决定应用方法在施工schedule.After排名的风险,并引入最重要的潜在并发症风险识别作者组准备好的影响类型的,可忽略几天延迟灾难性的三个月潜在的更多delays.Moreover变化的风险概率的名单进行了详细阐述,以说明风险是合理的项目执行过程中发生几次或相当可能每次发生类似夫妇的projects.Combin套可能产生的影响,并设置概率的通货膨胀导致了项目的具体风险matrix.Risk矩阵用于排名的所有风险,尤其是当无法忍受风险地区和风险需要缓解计划被画在matrix.Based第一工具专业文献,并为每一个潜在的危险自己的经验,作者根据降低风险水平的价值和无法忍受的范围内或需要紧急备份计划范围内的风险估计所有的风险进行分选,风险在下一步level.Knowing这.Authors证实如果这些似是而非的风险确实需要一个时间表储备或一些其他的解决方案可能是applied.If时间表储备是一个合理的解决方案相关的额外施工时间估计,考虑到具有审查risk.In结束施工进度影响程度调度准备,其中包括所有的施工方法进行风险分析。

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