Leading Trends in the Development of the Electric Power Industry

摘要

Our paper aims at conducting a comparative analysis of the forecasts of the development of electric power and defining of its main trends. It was determined that formation of promising directions of energy development in separate countries should consider world progressive trends and the fuel and energy potential of countries and their specificities of energy consumption. The analytical base of the study composed of: foresight for the development of world energy of leading international institutions and energy companies (International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Japan Institute for Energy Economics (IEEJ), Institute for Energy Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, British Petroleum, Exxon Mobil), as well as strategic and policy documents of Ukraine on the development of the country's energy sector. The study analyses the dynamics of the vectors of energy development in the world, the EU, Eastern Europe and Ukraine in 2015-2025. The discrepancy between Ukrainian forecast trends and global trends was determined. The dynamics of the structure of electric power generation in the world, the EU, Eastern Europe and Ukraine in 2015-2025 was analysed in accordance to its sources: thermal power plants/combined heat and power plants; nuclear power plants; hydroelectric power stations/pumped storage power plants; bioelectric power stations; solar power plants; wind power stations; renewable energy sources. The strategic and program documents of Ukraine on the development of the electric power industry were studied, especially prospects and problems of their implementation considering the current situation was analysed. The main trends that will determine development of the electric power industry for the period up to 2035-2040 were identified based on analysis of the world and domestic foresights.