China's Belt and Road Initiatives and Indonesia's Maritime Fulcrum: Building scenarios for economic multipolarity in South East Asia

摘要

Global economic growth suffered a slowdown since the financial crisis in 2008 and it was never back to the level before the crisis. This becoming challenges for Indonesia to be able to sustain its economic growth. Moreover, the economic hegemony in the unipolar world is now replaced by multipolar worlds. Therefore, new strategies to push the world economy is required. One of the efforts of increasing economic growth is done through infrastructure development. With regard to the foregoing, this research aims to develop a scenario of the Indonesian economy with the presence of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) which was initiated by China and GMF (Global Maritime Fulcrum) which was initiated by Indonesia. This paper restricts the discussion on the impact of GMF and BRI in Indonesia and ASEAN. The method used in this research is scenario generation based on the literature study. There are four scenarios (funnels), i.e., (i) both BRI and GMF can drive the Indonesian economy, (ii) BRI took over the role of GMF, (iii) BRI could not be implemented in Indonesia and the last, (iv) both cannot be implemented, and they become useless concept.