Initial Flow Rate Relationships to Decline Trends and Reserves

摘要

Improvements in drilling and completion technology have resulted in significant increases in production rates from new horizontal wells in the United States.Observations over many years show that a well's initial rate often has a predictable relationship to decline trends indicating a rate related bias in decline trends.This paper studies the relationship between initial flow rates and related decline trends and reserves forecasts for many of the major horizontal development plays in the United States and confirms that there is a rate related bias.Early decline trend forecast methods considering rate bias lead to improved reserve estimates and fewer revisions to estimates as wells mature.The study does not provide a methodology for determining peak rates but focuses on bias in decline trends related to known peak rates.