The Great Risk Delusion

摘要

The objective of this paper is to challenge the industry risk management paradigm and concept of ‘good practice’, and to encourage readers to adopt a revised outlook on how risks are assessed and managed which can result in optimized CAPEX and OPEX HSE spend, and supports robust demonstration that risks are As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). Based on decades of major hazard industry management experience, the author discusses how the implementation of modern industry tools and methods applied in HSE risk management in many parts of the world has the inherent potential to make us believe that risks are being managed effectively, whether or not that is supported by evidence; common ‘delusion factors’ include judgement of risk based on how others have managed hazards, and focusing on what study must be carried out rather than the application of the study as a tools to add value to the risk management process. Readers should be challenged to recognize these ‘delusion factors’ and proposes a way forward for the industry which reflects a shift in mind-set as the starting point to overcoming the great risk delusion and moving towards a robust organizational assurance that risks are ALARP in its original, intended usage. The paper's proposals reflect a shift in thinking which can improve performance across a range of major hazard industries, particularly in those locations reliant on a ‘tick-the-box’ compliance culture or on a workforce that has not developed within a risk-based regulatory environment.