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AN ALGORITHM TO IMPROVE SAMPLING EFFICIENCY FOR UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION USING SAMPLING BASED METHOD

机译:一种算法,以提高基于采样方法对不确定性传播的采样效率

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Sample size and computational uncertainty were varied in order to investigate sample efficiency and convergence of the sampling based method for uncertainty propagation. Transport code MCNPX was used to simulate a LWR model and allow the mapping, from uncertain inputs of the benchmark experiment, to uncertain outputs. Random sampling efficiency was improved through the use of an algorithm for selecting distributions. Mean range, standard deviation range and skewness were verified in order to obtain a better representation of uncertainty figures. Standard deviation of 5 pcm in the propagated uncertainties for 10 n-samples replicates was adopted as convergence criterion to the method. Estimation of 75 pcm uncertainty on reactor k_(eff) was accomplished by using sample of size 93 and computational uncertainty of 28 pcm to propagate 1σ uncertainty of burnable poison radius. For a fixed computational time, in order to reduce the variance of the uncertainty propagated, it was found, for the example under investigation, it is preferable double the sample size than double the amount of particles followed by Monte Carlo process in MCNPX code.
机译:改变样品大小和计算不确定性,以研究基于采样方法的采样效率和收敛性的不确定传播。运输代码MCNPX用于模拟LWR模型并允许从基准实验的不确定输入到不确定的输出来绘制映射。通过使用用于选择分布的算法,改善了随机采样效率。验证平均范围,标准偏差范围和偏斜,以获得更好的不确定性数字。在10个N样品的传播不确定性中,5 pcm的标准偏差被采用作为该方法的收敛标准。通过使用大小93的样品和28pcm的计算不确定性来估计反应器K_(EFF)的估计来实现,以传播可燃毒毒半径的1σ不确定度。对于固定的计算时间,为了降低不确定性的变化传播,发现,对于在研究的示例中,样本大小优选比MCNPX码中的蒙特卡罗过程的双倍的样品大小。

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