Urban growth modeling of Ciliwung and Cisadane watersheds within Bogor municipality by using integrated Ca-Markov and frequency ratio

摘要

Bogor Municipality with the population of 1,030,720 is crossed by two major rivers, Ciliwung and Cisadane which flow through Jakarta Greater Metropolitan Area. Related to Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) in watershed environment, it is interesting to compare the urban growth in Bogor Municipality within Ciliwung and Cisadane watershed to explore its driving factors. This study tries to perform urban growth modeling in Ciliwung and Cisadane watershed both located in Bogor Municipality by integrating the CA-Markov with Frequency Ratio (FR). In addition, LULC maps of Bogor Municipality in 2000 and 2007 will be used to extract the non-urban and urban areas in both watersheds. Results showed that all classes of distance to toll road and highway have FR > 1, which indicates that both factors have played an important role in driving urban growth occurrence in Ciliwung and Cisdane watersheds. When compared with LULC map of Bogor Municipality in 2014, it projected urban areas in Ciliwung parts by using integrated CA-Markov and FR showed overall accuracy of 73.14%. While urban location in Cisadane watershed within Bogor Municipality showed an overall accuracy of 74.93% when compared with the actual map of Cisadane's urban location in 2014. Based on the integrated CA-Markov and FR, it can be predicted that in 2021, 62.37% of Ciliwung areas and 50.05% of the areas in Cisadane within Bogor Municipality will become urban.