The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China's Export Trade to Countries and Regions along the Belt and Road

摘要

Based on the panel data of 45 countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2016, this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's export trade by means of the OLS hybrid regression, panel fixed effect model and dynamic panel GMM model. And the findings show that the dynamic panel GMM model is more reasonable, which means that China's export trade to countries and regions along the Belt and Road will be affected by the previous export, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the increase in volatility will have a negative impact on China' s exports to countries and regions along the Belt and Road. Moreover, both the differential GMM model and the system GMM model are adopted to analyze the three-component sample of the free trade zone, and it is found that the income level of the foreign countries is the most important factor affecting China's exports to countries and regions along the Belt and Road, the increase in income levels of low-income countries and regions such as ASEAN will make China's export trade to these countries larger than the EU and other high-income countries and regions.