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Using willingness to pay to forecast time readiness of rooftop photovoltaic adoption in Jakarta and Surabaya

机译:利用愿意支付雅加达和泗水屋顶光伏采用的预测时间准备

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It is important to determine the time when people in a region are ready to adopt the technology. In addition, PT PLN (Persero) as an electric state-owned company also needs to find the time when PT PLN (Persero) has to be involved in rooftop photovoltaic business. To predict the readiness of rooftop photovoltaic adoption in Indonesia, this paper estimated the willingness to pay (WTP) of household customers then compared the WTP with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for scenario rooftop PV without batteries in two big cities namely Jakarta and Surabaya. In this discussion, a comparison of WTP and LCOE was carried out covering five years for the period 2018 to 2023. This study uses data from the National Social and Economic Survey (SUSENAS) conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in March 2016 to estimate the WTP of electricity per year, sample respondent was1,081 households domiciled in Surabaya city and DKI Jakarta province. Calculation of estimated LCOE per year is carried out by assuming some data, namely investment costs, operational-maintenance costs, discount rates, and derating factors. The result indicates household customers in Surabaya have higher WTP than customers in DKI Jakarta, and rooftop PV systems in Surabaya have lower LCOE values than DKI Jakarta because Surabaya has a greater solar energy potential, thus, customers in Surabaya are expected to have a greater chance to adopt rooftop photovoltaic than DKI Jakarta.
机译:重要的是要确定一个地区人员准备采用该技术的时间。此外,PT PLN(Persero)作为电动国有公司还需要找到PT PLN(Persero)必须参与屋顶光伏业务的时间。为了预测印度尼西亚屋顶光伏采用的准备,本文估计为家庭客户支付(WTP),然后将WTP与电力(LCoE)的均衡成本与两个大城市中没有电池的电力(LCoE)进行比较,即雅加达和泗水。在本次讨论中,2018年至2023年的WTP和LCoE的比较涵盖了五年来的五年。本研究利用2016年3月的中央统计局(BPS)进行的国家社会和经济调查(Susena)的数据估计每年电力的WTP,Sample受访者为Surabaya City和Dki Jakarta省居住。通过假设一些数据,即投资成本,运营 - 维护成本,折扣率和降额因子来计算每年估计的LCoE。结果表明泗水的家用客户比DKI雅加达的客户更高,泗水的屋顶光伏系统比DKI雅加达更低,因为泗水具有更大的太阳能潜力,因此,泗水的客户有望有更大的机会采用屋顶光伏比DKI雅加达。

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