A solar energy resources estimation method based on EOF and ARMA model

摘要

A method to estimate solar energy resources was introduced in this paper. Based on the solar data observed by meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial characteristics of solar energy resources in the west of China were analysed by EOF. The main modal was determined and its time series was forecasted by ARMA model. Using the time series forecasted by ARMA model and the space factors of observed data computed by EOF, the prediction of solar resources field was estimated. Experiment results show that the predicted field tends to reflect the characteristics of the measured field and the area of solar energy resources can be estimated by this method properly.