Demonstration for estimation of nega-watt potential in Japan

摘要

In this demonstration project, we established an environment in which several utility companies and aggregators provided a demand response (DR) service for consumers in multiple areas, and constructed a multi-area adaptive and large-scale DR communication platform that can flexibly accommodate a change in its constituents. Through the implementation of DR programs, the operational adaptability of OpenADR2.0b and the "DR standard interface specification, ver1.1" published by the Japan Smart Community Alliance (JSCA) was validated and relevant issues were identified. Power consumption data, typically with a 5-min resolution, were collected from more than 2000 consumers for this demonstration. These consumers were in the service areas of TEPCO Power Grid, Inc., Chubu Electric Power Co., and Kansai Electric Power Co., while the separate metering equipment was installed at 120 consumer sites, allowing high-resolution data (1 s) was collected to analyze the details of the DR operation of individual facilities such as air conditioners and private generators. First, by analyzing the obtained consumption data, the demand reduction rate and achievement rate were determined for all the participating aggregators and consumers. Regarding the validity inspection of the baseline, a standard baseline (high 4 of 5 with adjustment) and various substitute baselines (high 4 of 5 without adjustment, prior measurement, similar day) were applied, and two indexes of "deflection = average relative error (ARE)" and "normalized standard error (NSE)" were evaluated based on the difference from the actual power consumption. Second, the reaction time and the ramp rate were evaluated from each controlled facility to assess the conformity of the DR menu, which should be assured in the nega-watt trading business. Analysis was carried out for the success events, defined as being those for which a committed consumption reduction of more than 70% must be achieved. From the analysis, the reaction time, which is defined as the duration until the load reduction by DR is completed, was evaluated to be approximately 270 s on average, and the reaction speed (ramp rate) was an average of 5.8%/min (facility capacity ratio). Third, the potential nega-watt volume was estimated for each control facility and type of industry. During the demonstration period from August 1, 2015 to January 31, 2016, a total of 1109 DR demonstration tests were implemented. Using all the results and some statistics, the nega-watt potential quantity of 1-h ahead DR was estimated as 13,893 kW with the emergency power generators and air conditioners between 13:00 and 17:00 in summer across the country, which corresponds to approximately 9.1% of Japanese peak demand in 2014, that is, 153 GW. The nega-watt potential was also estimated for other seasons, being 11,590 kW in autumn and 14,597 kW in winter.