Digital Revolution: How Digital Technologies Will Transform EP Business Models in Asia-Pacific

摘要

Disruptions, both to what the industry does and how it does it, have the potential to transform the oil and gas (O&G) industry. 3 main trends will impact future exploration and production (E&P) business models, namely: (i) lower oil price environment resulting in shrinking margins; (ii) changing energy mix towards natural gas and non-hydrocarbons; and (iii) increased level of connectivity that is driving digital technology adoption and automation. Digital is the latest buzzword, but what are the implications for an industry that is not new to digital technology? The increasing pace of innovation is driving opportunity for the sector to re-imagine their business models. Digital transformations could unlock USD 1.6-2.5 trillion for the industry, its customers, and wider society (World Economic Forum, 2017). Currently, only 6% of companies can be described as "Digital High Performers" - those who have successfully altered existing business models to capture opportunities for sustainable top-line growth (Accenture Digital, 2017). This paper identifies potential business models for the upstream sector that are built upon technologies such as advanced real-time 3D seismic studies, dynamic portfolio and margin management, well & facilities standardisation, and predictive analytics for flow assurance. Becoming a Digital High Performer requires a mindset shift, which results in completely different lifecycle processes (from workflow-driven to decision time-driven) and organisational structures (from rigid partnerships to a fluid capability ecosystem). Extracting resources faster and cheaper will replace maximising total recovery as a strategic goal; companies that achieve this have the potential to increase returns on invested capital by 3-10 times current levels (Refined, 2016). The path to capturing the future of O&G requires the right investments in technology and people, paired with flawless execution and governance. Economic scenarios suggest that the combined impact of technology and socio-economic factors could accelerate peak oil demand to as early as 2030 (World Energy Council, 2016). This increases the urgency for energy companies to rethink their strategic direction and how they generate competitive advantage in a rapidly changing world.