Comparison Between Empirical and Expert Elicitation Reliability Curves for Hydropower Assets as Applied to Risk Based Asset Management (PPT)

摘要

USACE’s Hydropower Modernization Initiative (HMI) utilizes a risk-based asset management methodology to prioritize investments across its fleet. To develop the probability of failure curves necessary for risk-based prioritization, historical asset replacement data has been used. One notable concern with this data is that an asset replacement does not always correspond to asset failure. The Hydroelectric Design Center along with USACE’s Risk Management Center and Bonneville Power Administration recently organized an expert elicitation on the six major hydropower powertrain components. The goal of the expert elicitation was to develop an estimate of an assets reliability based on catastrophic failure as opposed to just replacement. This study will compare the results of the new reliability curves developed using the expert elicitation method against the previously used curves with regard to risk based asset management. These new reliability curve will be compared to reliability curves populated by 50 years of retirement data from US Bureau of Reclamation, Tennessee Valley Authority, and the US Army Corps of Engineers. The focus will be on timing of asset investments and possible changes in the reliability benefits. Results of this study will be used to inform and be incorporated into USACE’s next HMI annual report.