Operational wave forecast reliability in Cook Inlet, Alaska

摘要

To enhance the safety of various marine operations in many coastal regions, ocean weather monitoring and prediction systems are playing an increasingly important role over the last couple of decades. To provide marine forecasts in Cook Inlet, Alaska, which has extremely complex geometry and the largest tidal fluctuations has in the U.S., a wave forecasting system is developed. High-resolution 36-hour forecasts of significant wave heights (SWHs) are provided daily. A comprehensive assessment of the forecasting system was performed by comparing the results with measurements from two satellites (JASON-2 and CRYOSAT-2) data for about 21 months. Scatter plots of observed data versus forecasts of SWHs and the probability of occurrence for groups of SWHs are presented as measures of wave forecast reliability. Correlation coefficients (R~2) and indices of agreement (D) between predicted and measured SWHs were reasonable for the full duration of study.