On Time-series Empirical Analysis of Tourism income and Economic Growth in Gansu China

摘要

This paper conducts the causal analysis between TI (TI) and economic growth of Gansu province in China using time-series data from 1986-2010, and it is directed by the means of time-series estimations through ADF unit root test, co-integration tests, error-correction analysis and Granger causality test. The purpose of the paper is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth on TI of Gansu in China. The results suggest that TI does not appear to Granger-cause economic growth, and economic growth also does not significantly affect TI, which means some studies have overestimated the positive effect of TI on economic growth, and underestimated the influence of economic growth on TI. The paper slao predicts the future development of tourism industry in Gansu.