Modeling the relationship between bank efficiency, capital and risk in Albanian banking system

摘要

Bank efficiency is considered to be very important in the relationship between risk and capital. It affects both capital and risk and it is seen as one of the factors that determine them. On the other side, capital regulation and risk-taking behaviour influenced by it have an impact on efficiency. This paper gives an overview of theoretical and empirical studies that are going to be used on modelling the relationship between efficiency, capital and risk-taking behaviour of commercial banks operating in Albania during the period 2002-2014. Based on previous works worldwide, a three stage model is found to be a proper one for such analysis about Albanian banking system. According to this model: first, the regression of efficiency and variables indicating risk and capital has to be analysed, second capital will be regressed against variables indicating efficiency and risk and in the third stage risk-taking will be regressed against variables indicating efficiency and capital. Based on previous studies related to this issue there are findings of a positive trade off between inefficiency and bank risk-taking (such as US evidences) and also negative one (such as European banks that seem to hold more capital and take on less risk in case of inefficiency). Defined independent factors of efficiency, capital and risk-taking are going to be used on an empirical study, subject of prospective research. To my knowledge there is no previous study on this issue for Albanian banking system. This model enables testing of different hypotheses about risk, capital, efficiency and relationship between them. It is going to respond to the effects that reduction in cost efficiencies might have on future risks of Albanian commercial banks. Furthermore, this model gives the possibility to test the bad management hypothesis and efficiency version of moral hazard hypotheses for targeted banks and banking system. It also responds to the questions whether bank cost efficiency makes the foundation of banks' capital position and risk-taking and also whether there is an evidence of relationships between capital and risk-taking in line with moral hazard hypothesis.