The establishment and analysis of the prosperity indexes for China's power market

摘要

As the pillar industry of the national economy, electric power has important influence on promoting the development of national macroeconomic. Along with the issuance of "No.9 Document" in 2015, China's power industry reform has entered a critical period. Based on the prosperity indexes analysis and forecast the development trend of power industry has important significance on the China's power industry reform. This paper starts with the indexes selection considering short-term, long-term and no market factors. The analysis of composite index has shown that the prosperity index of China's power market is above 100 from 2001 to 2014 and it's between 95-100 on the first half of 2015. At the same time, the regression correction has been carried out to enhance the accuracy of the prosperity index to reflect the development trend of electric power and the electricity market is in the downward phase of a new mild round of economic fluctuations. In the end, the paper puts forward that the reform of power industry in our country should be gradual, at the same time we should pay more attention to the establishment of power market mechanism, and maintain the continuity of policy and other rationalization proposals.