Prediction of Aero-Engine Exhaust Gas Temperature Based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

摘要

Forecasting the performance of aero-engine is a crucial problem that facilitates the avoiding unnecessary delays of aircraft. By applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to aero-engine gas path system, we find that the ARIMA method is suitable for forecast Exhaust Gas Temperature fluctuation series. Further, we find the trend of predicted values and original values are similar and the error between them is small.