Prediction of Relativistic Electrons Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earth Using Adaptive Methods

摘要

Prediction of the time series of relativistic electrons flux in the outer radiation belt of the Earth encounters problems caused by complexity and nonlinearity of the "solar wind—the Earth's magnetosphere" system. This study considers such prediction by the parameters of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field and by geomagnetic indexes, using different methods, namely, Artificial Neural Network, Group Method of Data Handling and Projection to Latent Structures (also known as Partial Least Squares). Comparison of quality indexes of predictions with horizon from one to twelve hours among each other and with that of trivial model is presented.