Experience Feedback on 97 wind resource assessment studies in France - (PPT)

摘要

Pre-construction wind potential assessments are often associated with not negligible uncertainty levels due to the variability of the wind resource and the specific conditions of the study. The REEPEF project, carried out by Eoltech and co-financed by the ADEME, is a feedback experience study on 97 pre-construction wind potential assessments, aiming at comparing the estimated production to the effective production of wind parks in operation for more than one year. The sample comprises 94 operating wind farms representing 667 turbines and a total power of 1288 MW (11 separate owners and/or operators involved). The 97 pre-construction assessments were carried out by 15 independent consultancies, none of them representing more than 1/4 of the studies. To able the comparison, productions were adjusted to similar levels of availability and equivalent long term periods. Thus, the deviations between theoretical and effective productions can be explained both as the result of the uncertainty on the pre-construction assessments and the uncertainty on the actual performance of the turbines. If the reason of the output deviation is not always easy to identify as it may result from the combination of various elements, tests were still carried out to observe if some factors seem to cause any trend. Thus, the sample analyzed was reduced to avoid as much as possible the combined effects due to separate factors. Some factors were clearly identified as increasing the overestimation of the production capacity. The uncertainty on production of pre-construction studies involving such criteria should then be refined.