Forecast research on China's crude steel output in the new period

摘要

Chinese economic growth is clearly slower than the early stage. Crude steel output of China falls after 34 years continuous increase. In this paper, forecast the crude steel outputs of China in the next five years to provide quantitative basis for development strategy adjustment of iron and steel industry in the future. In this paper, study the relationship between two indicators of the crude steel production of each RMB ten thousand Yuan GDP and GDP, and find a stable correlation function between them. Forecast those indicators, which can calculate the crude steel output of China after this round of economy development pattern change. It points that the crude steel output data fall in the range from 804 million tons to 841 million tons. That means after China's economic growth downward adjustment, the growth of crude steel output of China will fall, but the total quantity is still huge.