Advanced MCP for improved assessment of curtailment losses

摘要

Long-term extrapolation methodologies rely on the assumption that MCP relationships between a site and a reference remain constant over time. But in reality, these vary as a function of atmospheric stability at the site and reference. This is an issue when the predicted long-term time series needs to represent the actual wind speed variations over time, such as when it is used to assess curtailment lesses that apply at given times of the year or day. In this work, MCP relationships between MERRA-2 reanalysis and site wind speeds were found to vary significantly as a function of solar elevation angle. MCP algorithms were therefore modified to establish separate relationships between reference and site wind speeds and directions for times when the sun is below or above the horizon. The modified Matrix MCP method was found to improve the predictions of noise and/or bat curtailment losses at all 7 considered test sites, dividing the uncertainty associated with these losses by 2.