Forecast and Disaster Cause Analysis of Tropical Storm Damrey into the Gulf of Bohai

摘要

Based on the data of FY-2E infrared cloud image, radar, micaps3.1, island observation station, large buoy, and numerical weather forecasting products, effects of tropical storm Damrey in 2012 on Tangshan were analyzed, forecast and disaster cause of tropical storm Damrey were also analyzed. The results show that the mesoscale low pressure system, going into the west area of 38°N, 121°E, will move toward north fast along the 588 line of the subtropical high. When more than 39°N, the system will turn to northeast by the effect of westerlies, and move faster. Double effect of ultra low level southeast jet on the sea was obvious, not only is the power factor but also the water vapor factor. Strong precipitation and wind of Damrey appears at the point, which is the inflection point of the line 586 of the subtropical high on 500hpa upper weather map. Leting County flooded seriously because of the 5 consecutive rainstorms and the storm surge of Damrey.