Research on Evolution of Earthquake Disaster Social Risk Based on System Dynamics

摘要

In order to solve the problem of earthquake disaster emergency rescue and emergency resource allocation and the social risk change of earthquake disaster, based on the analysis of the interrelationships of various elements of earthquake hazard social risk evolution system, the method of system dynamics was used to construct the earthquake disaster The evolution of social risk, causal graph and system dynamics model, and the Nepal earthquake as an example, the evolution of the social risk of earthquake disaster simulation analysis. The simulation results show that the different allocation of emergency resources will have a certain impact on the social risk of earthquake disaster. The less the allocation of resources, the greater the possibility of the occurrence of social disasters, to provide a reference for how to reasonably allocate emergency resources for the emergency departments when conducting emergency risk management.