Grey Forecasting of Flood Disaster and Characteristics of Summer Grading-Precipitation in Togtoh County

摘要

Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods. Based on Togtoh County's daily precipitation observational data during the period of 1993-2012 in summer, the secular trend and features of grading-precipitation's rain days and rainfall is studied. In addition, the year of flood was predicted. It is pointed out that there is a slight decreasing trend in summer rainfall and rainfall days in Togtoh County in recent 20 years, only the heavy rain and heavy rain days had an increasing trend. Prediction results show that the summer rainfall in Togtoh county from 2021 to 2022 is more than 246mm, that is, the abundance of water in summer, it is very easy to occur flood disaster.