Researches on Welder's Pneumoconiosis Risk Assessment Methods Based on Logistic Regression

摘要

Objective To research the risk assessment method of welder's pneumoconiosis caused by welding fume exposure, predict the incidence of welder's pneumoconiosis, and provide technical basis for occupational risk management. Method Welders of a large-scale agricultural machinery processing workshop were chosen as objectives. The incidence of welder's pneumoconiosis was predicted by logistic non-linear regression model using the concentrations of the welding fume that the welders exposed to and their exposure durations. Furthermore, the relationship between the incidence probability of welder's pneumoconiosis and exposure situation was found by using logistic regression model, and the incidence probability distribution was evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation. Results It was found that if these welders exposed to the welding fume of the current concentration for 5 or 10 years, the risk of welder's pneumoconiosis would be between 10~(-3) and 10~(-2), and for 20 or 30 years, it would be between 10~(-2) and 10~(-1). Assuming that they exposed to welding fume of this concentration for 30 years, the risk would exceed the acceptable risk level and measures should be taken. Conclusion In this study, a practical quantitative approach was proposed to assess the risk of welder's pneumoconiosis caused by welding fume exposure. Based on the results, it showed that as the risk management target, the concentration and exposure duration should be well controlled to reduce the risk of welder's pneumoconiosis. This method could be applied in evaluations of occupational disease hazard in construction projects and help to control and manage the risk of welder's pneumoconiosis.