Risk Informed Resilience Analysis of Networked Systems

摘要

The present paper proposes a framework for resilience analysis of networked systems in general.The framework takes basis in a probabilistic scenario based model which accounts for the uncertainties associated with the systems external and internal exposure events as well as the corresponding resistances of the system constituents.Based on the suggested framework it is possible to assess the risks associated with systems comprised of networked constituents such as electricity distribution systems for the situation where damages to the constituents are caused by accidents with uncertain intensifies such as earthquakes.The suggested framework and approaches are illustrated on an example considering the resilience analysis of a fictitious electrical power grid.