The Analytical Decision Model of Cleaning Space Debris

摘要

In order to solve the problem B of the 2016 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM), I study the decision problem of cleaning up the space debris. To determine whether a viable commercial opportunity exits, I establish models as follows: First, I study the present situation of debris and the methods of cleaning up, among which the ground-based laser and the space-based laser technology are greatly used. In which, the method of combining the ground-based laser with the space-based laser to get the best strategies is proposed creatively. Then, I study the method of using satellite collector. According to the optimal energy and time model by using genetic algorithm we can calculate the optimal energy and time, with the practical restriction and the requirement. In addition, on the basis of the above models, I set a time-depended analytical decision model based on the empirical tractable formulas that includes the cost, benefit, and the risk factors to judge the economic feasibility of cleaning the debris qualitatively. In this model I introduce the commercial attraction coefficient α to assess whether the commercial opportunity exists.