An approximate calculation method for joint failure probability of two correlated failure modes

摘要

The correlation between failure modes cannot be neglected in mechanical system reliability modeling. By the course of predicting the reliability of a mechanical system with correlated failure modes, it is often difficult to accurately calculate the joint probabilities of correlated failure modes. Based on a deep probe into the geometry meaning of joint failure probability of two correlated failure modes, an approximate calculation method for joint failure probability of two correlated failure modes is proposed. A numerical example of reliability analysis for a certain type of heavy vehicle's gearbox is given. The result shows that the approximate calculation method is feasible and easy, and at the same time has increased precision.