Forecast for Nuclear Energy: Clear Skies or Stormy Weather?

摘要

During the last decade many people in the nuclear industry were forecasting a renaissance in construction of nuclear power plants, especially in light of the near-zero greenhouse gas emissions of nuclear power and the global need for such cleaner electricity sources. While the accident in March 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan resulted in dozens of reactor shutdowns in Japan and reconsideration of new nuclear power plants in several countries, other countries are continuing to build new plants but not at a fast enough rate yet to make a significant further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Even before this accident, the prospects for major growth in nuclear power were dim. To explicate the present situation and potential future scenarios for nuclear power, this paper examines the issue of who bears the financial risk especially during the construction phase, the roles of governments in financial interventions such as loan guarantees, tax credits, and prices on greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of regulated versus market-based utility systems, the competition with relatively cheap natural gas, the roles of various governments around the world in determining the use of nuclear power, the interdependent nature of the nuclear industry with companies both competing and cooperating with each other, and the issue of whether small modular reactors or advanced nuclear reactors could result in many more plants being constructed in the United States and worldwide.