Assessment of the effects of climate change on cultivation areas for Jatropha using GIS

摘要

We estimated the potential area for Jatropha cultivation at a global scale under current and future climate scenarios using GIS. At present, the potential area for Jatropha cultivation is approximately 3.56 × 10~6 km~2 worldwide, but this area would decrease under future climate scenarios. Of the global potential area, Australia and Argentina account for 34 and 13%, respectively, under current climate conditions. Therefore, at present, Australia and Argentina are the most and second most suitable countries, respectively, for Jatropha cultivation. Australia and Argentina were also predicted to be the most sensitive to climate change for Jatropha cultivation. Our analyses suggest that the rank order of the six climate change scenarios, from the smallest to the largest effects on Jatropha cultivation, was as follows: B1, A1T/B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI.