Cost Effective Appraisal Strategy Using Decision Tree Analysis for Optimal Field Development Planning

摘要

Project B, consisted of five discrete subsurface elements; Remaining developed volumes, Infill opportunities, Resources in THIN-BED and Exploration prospects. These subsurface elements were at different levels of technical maturity and were planned into a single project maturity timeline with shared i(mpact on facilities. Based on level of technical maturity, two of the subsurface elements (THIN-BEDs, and Exploration prospects) were considered as requiring an appraisal plan to further mature their development options. In anticipation of "lower for longer" oil price scenario, the appraisal strategy for the discrete elements was integrated and designed utilizing decision tree analysis. The appraisal strategy was developed for the immature subsurface elements, consisting of a variety of appraisal methods, each cost effectively geared towards fit for purpose data acquisition to mitigate the key uncertainties and enable further oil development in the field. Decision tree analysis for each of the immature subsurface elements, describing the possible outcomes with associated probability of success, was performed including fit for purpose economic analysis to understand & decide the value add and timing of appraisal. This integrated appraisal strategy including decision tree analysis; provided the basis and strong logic to decide whether the appraisal is worthwhile and when is the most optimal time to do it. This methodology demonstrates how the quality decision around field development planning could be made by using decision tree analysis to evaluate the value of the components, using associated uncertainty around estimated ultimate recovery. Furthermore, this analysis also is utilized to understand the timing of appraisal vis-a-vis the overall field/project development.