Macroeconomic analysis of Tunisian economic fluctuations

摘要

During last four years, Tunisian economic system has been passed by a deep depression. Many fluctuated aggregates have risen such as inflation, unemployment, imports. Others have dropped like Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports, and investments and public debt. To explain economic fluctuations' facts, its determinants and which public policies could be used for regulation, we use a macroeconomic model of inflation demand curve. Mains results prove that excepting net export and private consumption, others global demand components have affected inflation positively and significantly public expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (investment), in add to GDP, as supply component, has a negative and significant effect. Concerning private consumption has a negative and significant influence whereas net export has no influence. Furthermore, results suggest that macroeconomic policy tools could be used to regulate economic cycle is real interest rate and public expenditure while real exchange rate seems to have no effect.