The role of biofuels in China's transport sector in carbon mitigation scenarios

摘要

A bottom-up model, China-TIMES was developed and carbon mitigation scenarios were designed to discern the role the biofuels in China's future transport sector. The development of biofuels in China will be restrained by technology progress, food security concern and land availability. Results suggest that biofuels will reduce 0.43 Gt of CO2 emissions in 2050 in the CM30 scenario and contribute to 35% of the total reduction. Also it can be concluded that bioethanol will be more influenced by the electrification than biodiesel and biojet fuels due to its easier substitution by electricity. Biofuels will be indispensable in China's transport decarbonization, and pertinent and coherent policies will be needed to propel the sustainable development of biofuels.